The continuing debate over Puigdemont’s return
Faced with the possibility of a call for an investiture session, the disturbing question arises: Should Carles Puigdemont, who has been in self-imposed exile since the end of 2017, return to Catalonia, despite the latent threat of being arrested and imprisoned? This question is at the center of multiple talks and analyzes about the tumultuous political panorama that defines Catalonia, especially in this unusual summer, where climatic instability seems to also reflect the sociopolitical situation. The first official response obtained from Junts per Catalunya suggests that the president must return, since his absence could be interpreted as a lack of loyalty to his word, a breach that his detractors would not hesitate to point out.
The complications of the current investiture
At this moment, the socialist Salvador Illa seems to be the candidate with the best chance of achieving the investiture, although the terms of the pact he is negotiating with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) are complex. The lack of strong proposals in terms of financing, beyond the reactivation of the tax consortium created after the reductions in the Statute of 2006, and the uncertainty about the support of the ERC militancy for any interim agreement led by Marta Rovira, further complicate the situation.
Junts’ perspective regarding Puigdemont’s return
According to the dominant narrative in Junts, Puigdemont’s obligation is to return to Catalonia. Although the judges of the Supreme Court, Pablo Llarena and Manuel Marchena, have made adjustments to the interpretations of the crime of embezzlement to avoid the possibility of amnesty, the strategy of their lawyers would be to request precautionary measures to guarantee their freedom while the cases are analyzed. details of the case. However, in recent days, there has been a growing consensus in certain political and media circles suggesting that allowing the state to capture and prosecute him could be counterproductive. Puigdemont has managed to evade imprisonment during these seven years, and many question what would be achieved by accepting what he previously considered unjust.
Symbolism of return
Since the end of 2017, Puigdemont has protected not only himself from the Spanish judicial system – in his opinion, unfair – but also the symbolic figure of the presidency of the Generalitat, which was suspended by the State under article 155 of the Constitution. . The identity between the individual and the institution is crucial: his arrest would mean an attack on a legitimately recognized power in Catalonia. From this perspective, Catalan sovereignty, although limited by the Spanish autonomous regime, would be even more compromised.
Importance of the current context
If Catalonia were an independent and sovereign State, the situation would be very different. The current political context has called into question the so-called revolution of smiles and the referendum of October 1, 2017. Therefore, Puigdemont’s return is not only reduced to a personal decision, but also affects the perception of the institution that It represents.
Consequences of a possible return
In the event of being invested again as president of the Generalitat, the relevance of the presidency would be restored. This does not invalidate the mandates of his predecessors, such as Quim Torra or Pere Aragonès, who acted legitimately in his time. As a mere hypothesis, we can compare this situation to what would have happened if, during the exile of Josep Tarradellas, the Parliament had been reinstated without allowing the return of the president. However, Puigdemont had anticipated his return for the investiture: first for his own, then for the set of necessary investitures.
What decision will ERC make?
The core of the question is not only the return of Puigdemont, but whether ERC will facilitate a short-term investiture, either of the president in exile or of the socialist leader. ERC has the ability to activate a mechanism that determines the presence of Puigdemont, and in this way, symbolically reappropriate the presidency. His support for Puigdemont, for example, would be decisive. If ERC gives its support to Puigdemont’s candidacy, it will be difficult to subsequently support Salvador Illa in another investiture attempt, which creates a considerable political dilemma for ER.
Implications for the coalition between ERC and the PSC
If ERC decides to support Illa, it assumes responsibility for the negative repercussions that this would entail within the pro-independence electorate. If, however, he aligns himself with Puigdemont, even if it leads to his arrest, his commitment to his historical figure would be correct. In both scenarios, tensions and fractures could intensify in the independence movement. The possibility of a Puigdemont investiture must be carefully weighed, as it has potential repercussions for all actors involved.
The consequences of not returning
If, in the end, Puigdemont decides not to return at this time, it would benefit the ERC, which seeks to consolidate an alliance with the socialists to avoid new elections. Likewise, Salvador Illa’s leadership could be less threatened, providing respite in this uncertain period. The forces at play between ERC and the PSC could converge to control Puigdemont’s options in the future. However, the dilemma remains: can Puigdemont continue to postpone his return without affecting his role and legacy in Catalan politics?