The challenges of Spanish banking in a changing market

Resistance to the Tax on Exceptional Profits

The CEO of CaixaBank, Gonzalo Gortázar, has once again expressed the disagreement of the large state bank with the implementation of a tax on the extraordinary profits of the sector. In a recent press conference to present the results of the first half of the year, Gortázar recalled that between 2011 and 2021, the profitability of the sector remained stagnant at 4.8%, a period that he metaphorically qualified like a ‘crossing through the desert’. Contrasting with this difficult period, he acknowledged that the last four years have been different, with a return that has grown to triple with the increase in interest rates, reaching 11.8%, although he he himself pointed out that it remains insufficient.

Complaints about Competitiveness

Gortázar emphasized that the average profitability of the companies in the Ibex-35 selection is 16%, which highlights that Spanish banking is in an unfavorable situation compared to other industries in the economy. In this context, the CEO considered whether the tax on extraordinary profits could be interpreted as a direct penalty on the banking sector.

Competitive Dynamics in the Banking Sector

Despite the growing concern about the possible accumulation of power following BBVA’s takeover of Sabadell, Gortázar assured that competition in the Spanish market is intense. He emphasized that Spain ranks 16th in terms of banking concentration within the euro zone, and that, although competition is high, the liquidity of financial assets has caused some distortions in the sector.

Analysis of the Cost of Credit

Gortázar provided relevant data on the current context of mortgage credit, noting that the average interest rate in Spain is 2.9%. In comparison, the rates in Germany and the European average are higher, with values ​​of 3.7% and 3.4% respectively. These data reflect a competitive market focused mainly on attracting new customers and on the offer of credits.

Stagnation of the Interest Margin

Gortázar stated that the period of growth in interest margins has reached its end, predicting a moderate increase between 7% and 10% in year-on-year terms. He identified multiple factors that influence this margin, recognizing that the variability of rates is one of the most significant in its evolution.

Perspectives on Future Acquisitions

In response to questions about possible new acquisitions by CaixaBank, Gortázar was skeptical, indicating that they are unlikely to be executed in the near future. He reviewed that international operations do not offer synergies similar to what domestic operations can provide, which limits opportunities for expansion outside of Spain.

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