A Surprising Result
Donald J. Trump has scored an unexpected victory against his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, despite the fact that the latter had significantly higher campaign resources, with notable support from the most powerful donors.
Europe facing the Return of the Republican
With the recent victory of Trump, Europe is in a complicated situation. The new president’s promises include a strengthening of economic and defense policies that could further complicate relations with the Old Continent.
The European Strategic Failure
European leaders have pledged to support the Biden administration in recent years, a decision that is now revealed to be a mistake, especially in the case of Kamala Harris, who trusted her party during the election campaign.
Protectionist Policies and Consequences
Trump’s protectionist strategy is not new, as he has continued the line marked by his predecessor. Projects like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have gone unnoticed in Europe, even though they offer significant incentives for companies investing in the United States.
Unsettled Commercial Disputes
During the Biden administration, the European Union has been unable to resolve trade disputes with the United States, including disputes over Boeing and Airbus, as well as issues related to subsidies for electric vehicles.
The Energy Crisis in Europe
The war in Ukraine has left Europe in a difficult situation in terms of energy supply. The US oil and gas sector has thrived, while European consumers have seen prices climb, particularly affecting the German industry.
Expectations before the New Policies
With the return of Trump, a continuation of the policies of incentives and tariffs that will affect Europe is expected. The demand by European car companies to set up factories in the United States is an example of how the pressures could increase.
Economic Impact and Uncertain Future
Goldman Sachs has warned that the euro could lose up to 10% of its value if Trump implements massive tariffs. This could reduce the profits of large European companies by up to 5%.
Growing Energy Dependence
Trump could further facilitate exports of energy resources, although this may increase Europe’s dependence on the United States for energy supplies. The situation is further complicated by the shutdown of liquefied natural gas projects during the Biden administration.