A controversial legacy: the one-child policy
Between 1980 and 2015, China implemented a drastic policy that limited the birth rate to one child per family. This measure, designed to control the population explosion, has left a deep mark on Chinese society. Over time, Beijing has been relaxing this rule, allowing two children since 2016 and finally three from 2021, in a desperate attempt to deal with a looming demographic crisis.
The social impact of restrictions
The effects of the one-child policy have been manifested in multiple dimensions, affecting women in particular. Those who lived under this regime remember the pressures they suffered, both from their parents and from society, to comply with cultural expectations that gave priority to male children. Now, with motherhood on the horizon, many of these women show a clear reluctance to have children, thus complicating government initiatives to encourage an increase in birth rates.
The disappearance of girls: a disturbing statistic
According to experts such as Li Shuzhuo, director of the Center for Population and Social Policy Research, it is estimated that during the years of the one-child policy, approximately 20 million girls were lost to selective abortions and infanticide. This trend reinforced the idea that girls were less valuable, perpetuating a cultural preference for male children.
Campaigns to reverse the fall in the birth rate
With the introduction of the three-child policy, the Chinese government has launched several campaigns to promote a ‘pro-birth culture’. Posters and slogans that once warned against having more than one child now call for the responsibility of having more offspring. Despite the good intentions, public response has been mixed, with numerous tongue-in-cheek comments reminiscent of past warnings.
An alarming situation: the fall in the birth rate
China’s 2024 birth report reveals that the fertility rate has fallen to an alarming 1.0, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. In cities like Shanghai, the situation is even more critical, with 50% of women not having children, which poses a serious demographic challenge.
Obstacles to the reversal of the trend
Experts such as Yi Fuxian point to three key factors making it difficult for the birth rate to pick up: a low desire for fertility, high costs associated with parenting, and a rising infertility rate. Of all these, the only one that the government can effectively address is affordability. Recently, new incentives have been proposed, such as birth allowances and greater availability of childcare facilities, but the results are still insufficient.
Global competition: China vs. India
With a population exceeding 8 billion, the demographic competition between China and India is intensifying, especially after India has overtaken China in population. This new dynamic could have important implications for both nations on their path to global supremacy.
Reflections on the demographic future
As China faces these demographic challenges, it remains to be seen how the government will adapt to the changing needs of its population. The story of the one-child policy is a powerful reminder of how policy decisions can influence society for decades, and now, with an eye on an uncertain future, the country is at a critical crossroads.