A new economic paradigm
After World War II, the world has been marked by the dominance of the dollar and the military influence of the United States. This dynamic, driven by an increasingly financial economy and unequal globalization, has led to a landscape of prosperity but also of conflicts. Currently, the foundations of this order are in crisis.
Tariffs: a symptom of the current crisis
President Trump’s decision to impose universal tariffs is not simply a political peculiarity, but an indicator of a system that is showing signs of wear and tear. This article seeks to analyze the repercussions of this trade war, without falling into judgments, but focusing on the reconfiguration that may be underway.
Different economic perspectives
The classic and free -back approach
Economists of classic currents reject commercial barriers, arguing that free trade maximizes efficiency. They argue that tariffs end up being a burden for importers and consumers, raising prices and causing loss of well -being. Historically, the costs associated with tariffs have been shown to overcome benefits, affecting competitiveness and potentially employment.
Neoliberal vision: investment and stability
The neoliberal perspective coincides with criticism of protectionism, but highlights the importance of open and predictable trade. Tariff’s policies generate uncertainty that can discourage foreign investment and weaken multilateral institutions. There are concerns that the USA could be isolated, while American consumers could increase daily product prices.
Effects of trade war in Europe
The European Union is facing a difficult scenario, with a 20% tariff that affects most of its exports in the USA, including a 25% surcharge for the car sector. The consequences could be devastating, especially for key sectors such as automotive and industrial goods.
Automobile sector: an uncertain future
The automobile sector, essential in economies such as Germany and Italy, faces a possible increase in prices that could reduce sales significantly. This would not only affect manufacturers, but also supply and employment chains.
Technology and agri -food industry
European industrial and technological goods could lose competitiveness, while agri -food products could also be affected by the fall of demand. The possible loss of up to the percentage of annual GDP is an alarm signal for the European economy.
Geopolitical repercussions
Trump’s strategy of creating high tariffs not only has economic implications, but also alters the geopolitical scenario. The historically solid transatlantic relationship could be eroded, with Europe seeking a greater unity in the face of the threat of protectionism.
UNITAT EUROPEA I COORDINATED RESPOST
Protectionist measures have united EU Member States, which are prepared to respond synchronously. This response could include economic countermeasures and a reinforcement of trade agreements with other regions.
A new commercial tension era
The current situation raises a series of questions about the future of global trade. U.S. actions could generate a fragmentation of international trade, with commercial blocks that could redefine global relationships.
The long -term impact
U.S. and EU capacity to negotiate an agreement that reduces commercial tensions will be crucial. The uncertainty that surrounds the inflation and response of the Federal Reserve, as well as EU actions, will determine the course of world trade in the coming months.
Final reflections
The current situation is a significant challenge for both the US and EU. With the potential climbing of the trade war, the stability of global trade is in danger. The key to a future of prosperity can reside in the ability of the actors involved to find a path to dialogue and cooperation.