The Unknown of the Return
Should President Carles Puigdemont return to Catalonia if an investiture session is called, despite the renewed risk of being arrested and sent to prison? This issue, with all its implications, has captured the attention of those who follow the complex dynamics of the Catalan political landscape in a peculiar summer. The rainy weather highlights that this season, which seems to have not completely begun, has already consumed a third of its time on the calendar. From Junts per Catalunya, they maintain that their independence leader, who has been in exile since the end of 2017, would have no choice but to return. If he decided not to, he would violate his promise, which his detractors would call a new breach. Furthermore, he would leave the way clear for Salvador Illa, his socialist competitor, to achieve the investiture.
Salvador Illa’s Options
Salvador Illa, at this moment, seems to have greater chances of moving forward, despite the complications entailed by the pact he is negotiating with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). This situation is complicated by the insufficiency of a solid offer in terms of financing, in addition to the uncertainty about whether the Republican militancy will support a possible pre-agreement under the provisional leadership of Marta Rovira.
The Return of Puigdemont according to Junts
Returning to the topic of Carles Puigdemont, according to the predominant statements within Junts, his return is unavoidable. Despite the maneuvers of the Supreme Court judges, who seek to reinterpret the crime of embezzlement so that it cannot be subject to amnesty, it is anticipated that, in the event of arrest, his lawyers would request urgent precautionary measures from the Constitutional Court to release him. until the substance of the matter is resolved. Despite this, in recent days voices have emerged in various areas, both political, media and civil society, who believe that Puigdemont should not allow the so-called ‘deep state’ to finally obtain what it has been looking for: arrest him and imprison him in a Spanish prison.
The Duality of Person and Institution
During these years, Puigdemont has not only evaded the action of a justice system that he considers unjust and vindictive, but he has also preserved the symbolic and political dimension of the institution he represents: the presidency of the Generalitat. This presidency was intervened by the State through the application of article 155 of the Constitution. Therefore, the question arises of the interrelationship between the person of Puigdemont and the institution of the presidency. The arrest of Puigdemont would not only mean his imprisonment, but would also imply a new suspension and violation of the presidency of the Generalitat, a recognizable attribute of Catalan sovereignty, even if to a limited extent in the context of the Spanish autonomous regime.
The Context of Sovereignty
If Catalonia were a sovereign and independent state, we would be analyzing a completely different situation. This status quo is precisely what was questioned and altered during the so-called smile revolution and the October 1 referendum, an event that took place during the fall of 2017. We must recognize that this issue is of vital importance, regardless of the position to be adopted.
The Consequences of Return
Therefore, when evaluating Puigdemont’s possible return, both his figure and the institution he represents must be considered. If Parliament reinstates him as president, the presidency would be restored in every sense, which does not imply that the presidencies of Quim Torra, Pere Aragonès or even Salvador Illa are illegitimate. To illustrate this, we could imagine a scenario where, during the exile of Josep Tarradellas, Parliament is reinstated, but its return is prevented, despite the fact that the Republican presidency remained active for almost 40 years in exile.
Announcement of a Return
Puigdemont has stated that he will return for the investiture of the next president. His intention is first to return for his own investiture and, second, for any possibility of investiture. The initial framework of the amnesty, which did not foresee the maneuvers of the judges, seemed to allow his return with all the guarantees, assuming that the person and presidency would be completely restored. The key question behind this debate is, in fact, whether there should be an investiture and, if so, whose investiture it should be.
The Republican Left Paper
In the first instance, the responsibility of facilitating the investiture falls on ERC, which must decide whether the candidacy should be Salvador Illa or Carles Puigdemont. ERC would have to apply pressure in some way to guarantee the investiture and that Puigdemont keeps his promise to return, which in turn would restore the presidency in the Catalan parliament. The way in which ERC’s support for Puigdemont is articulated is crucial. If they support him and then Illa’s candidacy is unsuccessful, they will risk severe criticism.
Decisions Involving ERC
The decisions that ERC makes about how to proceed will influence the public perception of its actions and its relationship with the independence movement. If ERC chooses to support Puigdemont, it ensures a reconciliation with him, even if this implies his arrest. In contrast, if they do not support his return, they will be fueling discontent and separation within the independence movement.
The Possibility of No Return
In the event that Carles Puigdemont decides not to return at this time, it is clear that ERC, which constantly seeks stability in its alliances with the socialists and wishes to avoid new elections, could benefit from his stay in exile. This dynamic would also benefit Salvador Illa, who would not have to deal with Puigdemont’s complicated scenario in a summer already entangled by his own complexities.
Converging Interests
The interests of ERC and the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) are intertwined, creating considerable pressure on Puigdemont’s chances of a return. However, it remains to be seen if being able to prevent his return will be possible for them.
Final thoughts
The imminence of the investiture in the current context and the mapping of the interests of each party place Carles Puigdemont at a crossroads. The decisions taken in the coming weeks, both by Puigdemont, ERC and Salvador Illa, will mark the future course of Catalan politics. The central question will remain: who should be the beneficiary of this political game and what implications will it have for the cohesion of the independence movement?