An unprecedented historical situation
The presidential elections of November 5 in the United States could surprise with an unusual result: a tie. The contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, aspiring vice president, could repeat the historical peculiarity of the year 1800, when Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr faced the first electoral tie situation. CNN points out that, despite being unlikely, this scenario is well behind us.
Paths to the Electoral Tie
For a 269-269 tie to occur, Harris would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, and get one vote from Nebraska, while losing Pennsylvania and Georgia. However, the citizen warm-up set could lead to an unexpected outcome.
The Contingent Choice Environment
In the event of a tie, the contingent election mechanism would be activated, as stipulated in Amendment 12. Under this rule, if none of the candidates obtains the minimum required majority of the Electoral College, the Congress, which will have met on January 3, would take over the decision on who would occupy the presidency.
A Divided Congress
The call for this contingent election, scheduled for January 6, would take place after a failed vote count, in which it would be clear that there is no clear winner. That dynamic could intensify divisions among lawmakers, who would have to choose between their favorite candidate and the preferences of voters in their respective states.
Mechanisms of Choice in Situations of Disagreement
In the framework of a contingent election, the House of Representatives would choose the president from among the three candidates with the most votes, while the Senate would choose the vice president from the top two. The vote would not be individual, since each state delegation in the Chamber would have only one vote.
Implications of Time and the Succession Plan
If the delegations do not reach an agreement before January 20, the newly elected vice president would become interim president. In the event that the Senate did not complete its vote, the protocols of the 20th amendment would be followed, with the speaker of the House of Representatives assuming the presidential functions temporarily.
The Unfortunate Way
The process would be marked by complexity and political tensions between parties. Not only would it create uncertainty about leadership, but it would contribute to deeper rifts within American society, with the fear that politics would become a battleground rather than a mechanism for governance.