The Monumental Impact of the 12-M Elections
The Catalan and Spanish political landscape has experienced a paradigm shift after the momentous elections of March 12 (12-M). The results have rewritten the political map, giving rise to a scenario unprecedented in recent decades.
The Rise of the PSC and the Decline of Nationalism
The Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) has emerged as the clear winner, winning a historic victory by a wide margin over its rivals. This victory marks a turning point in Catalan politics, since the PSC had not achieved such resounding success for decades.
On the contrary, the independence movement has suffered a severe setback. Junts per Catalunya, the main pro-independence party, has seen its parliamentary representation reduced, while the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) has lost ground to the PSC.
The Role of Junts and ERC in the Formation of the Government
The future Catalan government will depend largely on the ability of Junts and ERC to form alliances. However, cross-deals between these parties and the Spanish government seem unlikely at this time.
The leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, has ruled out any agreement with Pedro Sánchez, while ERC has avoided committing to specific pacts.
The National Impact of the Catalan Elections
The 12-M elections have had a profound impact on Spanish politics. The victory of the PSC has strengthened the position of Pedro Sánchez’s government and weakened the right-wing opposition.
The Popular Party (PP), which had bet heavily on these elections, has seen its hopes of becoming the main opposition force in Catalonia frustrated.
The Future of the Nationalist Agenda
The results of 12-M have dealt a hard blow to the nationalist agenda in Catalonia. The frontal opposition to the amnesty for pro-independence prisoners has been evident in the low parliamentary representation of the parties that support it.
The new judicial subpoenas related to the Democratic Tsunami have lost their ability to ignite political debate, as the electoral results have absorbed public attention.
Uncertainty and Cross Pacts
The Catalan and Spanish political future remains uncertain. The possible departure of Carles Puigdemont and the cross threats between the different parties add an element of volatility to the situation.
In the coming days, the confrontation between the PP and the PSOE will intensify in the face of the European elections in June. The outcome of these elections could influence the Spanish government’s ability to advance its legislative agenda.
Sociologists warn that instability has become the new normal in Catalan and Spanish politics. The historic 12-M will go down in history as a turning point, but its true impact remains to be seen.