Latest electoral polls
Just six days before the elections, the results of the latest electoral polls carried out by El Periódico and El País have been published. These surveys show significant changes in voter preferences, with an increase in support for the Socialist Party (PSC) and Junts per Catalunya, and a decrease in support for Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC).
The surveys were carried out between May 2 and 4, taking into account the effect of the five days of reflection imposed by Pedro Sánchez at the beginning of the electoral campaign. According to polls, the PSC has obtained favorable results and continues to grow together with the party of the president in exile.
Survey results
According to the survey carried out by El Periódico, the PSC would obtain 42 seats, which represents an increase of 5 seats compared to the previous elections. Junts per Catalunya would be the second most voted party, with up to 37 seats. On the other hand, ERC would suffer a significant drop, obtaining only 21 seats, a decrease of 12 seats compared to its current position.
The survey carried out by El País and SER also shows a victory for the PSC and a decrease in support for ERC. However, he points out that the PSC would need to form an alliance with Junts per Catalunya in order to reach the absolute majority of 68 seats necessary to form a government.
The Puigdemont effect
One of the reasons for the change in voter preferences is the Puigdemont effect. According to surveys, Junts per Catalunya has experienced significant growth since Carles Puigdemont confirmed his candidacy. The party has managed to attract voters from ERC and CUP, which has contributed to its rise in the polls.
On the other hand, ERC has suffered a decline in voter support, winning only 14.2% of the vote and 21 seats in the most recent polls.
Prospects for forming a government
Polls show that an alliance between the PSC and Junts per Catalunya would be one of the few options to form a government, since none of the other coalitions would reach an absolute majority. However, the formation of this alliance is not without difficulties, since an agreement between both parties would be needed to govern.
In summary, electoral surveys reveal significant changes in voter preferences, with an increase in support for the PSC and Junts per Catalunya, and a decrease in support for ERC. These results indicate that an alliance between the PSC and Junts per Catalunya could be one of the options to form a government, although an agreement between both parties would be needed to achieve this.