The PSC leads the polls
According to two polls published recently, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) is emerging as the winner of the next elections in Catalonia, with an estimate of 37 to 41 seats, according to one source, and a range of 39 to 40 seats, according to another. This would place Salvador Illa as possible president of the Generalitat, beating Carles Puigdemont of Junts and Pere Aragonès of ERC.
Results for other matches
Polls also indicate that Junts would get between 30 and 34 seats according to one source, and 31 to 33 according to another. On the other hand, ERC would be left with between 22 and 28 seats, the CUP would get between 4 and 8, and the Commons between 6 and 9. This situation could complicate possible post-electoral pacts, since the results not only put danger for the pro-independence majority without also an eventual left-wing tripartite.
Survey data
The survey of the newspaper Ara, carried out online among 3,100 people, indicates that the PSC would obtain between 37 and 41 seats, exceeding 27% of the votes. On the other hand, El Nacional’s survey, carried out by telephone to 600 people, places the PSC with a margin of 39 to 40 seats. In addition, polls show that Junts would get just under 20% of the votes and between 30 and 34 seats, while ERC would get between 22 and 26 seats with 17% of the votes.
Other matches and possible scenarios
The Popular Party (PP) and Vox would tie in percentage of the vote, with a slight advantage of the ultra-right in seats. The Commons would be left with between 6 and 9 seats, and the CUP between 5 and 8. In addition, polls indicate that Aliança Catalana would enter parliament, while Ciutadans would not obtain any seats. These results would make it difficult for a pro-independence majority, which would have 45% of the votes and between 59 and 75 seats, while the non-independence bloc would get 50% of the votes and between 62 and 74 seats. This could complicate the formation of post-electoral governments and pacts.