A PSOE Resilient to the Storm
The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) has managed to mitigate the negative impact of recent controversies, including the scandal involving Begoña Gómez and the debate over the financing of Catalonia. According to the latest survey by NC Report, published in La Razón, Pedro Sánchez’s party could consolidate its current position of 120 seats, and even aspire to reach 123.
The Changing Electoral Scenario
Even though the PSOE has managed to stabilise its situation, this does not guarantee that Sánchez will keep his seat in La Moncloa in the event of new elections. The projection suggests a loss of the majority, especially with the collapse of some key allies. The combination of PP and Vox could result in an absolute majority, with the PP increasing its representation from 137 to between 157 and 160 seats.
The Sumar Debacle
A new electoral cycle could be devastating for Sumar, the PSOE’s main partner. It is expected that they will go from 31 to just 9 or 10 seats. The survey reveals that only 33% of their current voters would be inclined to repeat their support, while 28% would opt for the socialists and 25% for Unidas Podemos, which could get between 2 and 3 representatives.
The Right on the Rise: A New Order in Congress
The possible holding of early elections could reconfigure Congress with a majority dominated by right-wing and far-right forces. The Popular Party could gain up to 23 seats, largely at the expense of Vox, which continues to lose electoral support. It is estimated that Vox could fall to between 23 and 24 seats, a significant drop that highlights its growing weakness.
The Emergence of New Actors
Despite Vox’s decline, the political landscape could become even more complicated with the entry of a new far-right party, known as ‘Se Acabó la Fiesta’ (SALF). This new political player could capture around 11% of the votes that previously supported Vox, which would indicate a change in the dynamics of the far-right vote in Spain.
Reflections on the Political Future
Spain’s political future looks uncertain, with the possibility of a significant change in the composition of Congress. Fluctuating support for left-wing parties and the consolidation of the right could shape a new balance of power. Voters’ decisions in the upcoming elections will be crucial in defining the country’s political direction.