The PSC: An Unexpected Boost
The latest electoral polls reveal a changing panorama in Catalonia. The Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC), led by Salvador Illa, has experienced a notable rise in the polls, placing itself as a clear favorite for the May 12 elections.
Projections indicate that the PSC could win between 40 and 47 seats, a result that would far exceed its performance in the previous elections. This boost is largely attributed to the voter turnout of the Citizens and the Commons, two parties that have suffered significant decline.
ERC: Maintaining Leadership, but with Challenges
Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), led by Pere Aragonès, remains in second position, but faces the challenge of maintaining its leadership within the independence bloc. Polls predict that ERC could win between 31 and 37 seats.
The rise of the PSC and the potential threat of Junts per Catalunya (Junts) could test ERC’s position as the main pro-independence force. However, the poll suggests that Republican voters are divided between Junts and ERC, which could help maintain the balance of power.
Together: The Emerging Threat
Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, has gained ground in the polls, but is still behind ERC. Polls predict that Junts could win between 28 and 34 seats, which represents a significant increase over its previous performance.
Junts’ rise is attributed to the Puigdemont effect, which has attracted some pro-independence voters from ERC. However, the poll also suggests that Junts could lose voters to ERC, which could limit its ability to overtake the Republicans.
Other Parties: Rise and Fall
The Popular Party (PP) has experienced a notable rise in the polls, projecting to obtain between 8 and 12 seats. This growth is largely attributed to the voter turnout of Ciudadanos, which has lost popularity in recent years.
Vox, a far-right party, could also gain representation in the Catalan Parliament, with projections of between 5 and 9 seats. On the other hand, the Commons, a left-wing party, has suffered significant disappointment, with projections of just 3 to 6 seats.
The Future of Independence: An Uncertain Panorama
The election results will have a significant impact on the future of the Catalan independence movement. The poll suggests that pro-independence parties could retain an absolute majority in Parliament, but the margin is narrow.
The division between ERC and Junts could weaken the independence bloc, while the rise of the PP and Vox could further complicate the political panorama in Catalonia.
