The PP loses weight in a changing scenario
According to a recent poll conducted by GESOP for El Periódico, the Popular Party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is emerging as the winner of the upcoming elections, but with a significant drop in popular support. The research reveals a decrease of 2.2 points compared to September, leaving it with 31.1% of the vote and an estimate of 135 to 139 seats.
The PSOE remains in the competition
The Socialist Party, led by Pedro Sánchez, has managed to increase its popularity by 1.3 points, reaching 28.3% of the vote, which would give it between 117 and 121 deputies. This dynamic reduces the distance between both parties, but does not lead to significant changes in the electoral landscape.
Vox: the beneficiary of political instability
In a context of political crisis, Vox has emerged as the big winner. The same survey indicates that the far-right party has achieved 14.9% of the vote, increasing its representation from 33 to an estimated 45 to 49 deputies. This marked increase, of 1.9 points compared to September, positions Vox as a considerable force, allowing the right-wing bloc to add an absolute majority with a total of 180 to 188 deputies.
The fall of Sumar and its consequences
In contrast, Sumar has experienced a drastic decline, with a drop of almost 3 points, standing at 8% of the vote and losing between 13 and 15 deputies. This drastic decrease means that the progressive coalition could only obtain between 132 and 140 seats, complicating Pedro Sánchez’s continuity in government.
The panorama of pro-independence parties
In the pro-independence field, Esquerra Republicana (ERC) remains ahead of Junts, with both parties repeating their 7 seats. However, ERC has achieved a 9-point increase in support, while Junts has suffered a 17-point loss in voter loyalty, reflecting the internal turmoil affecting the party.
Preferences for the presidency
The preference of Spaniards for the current president is notable, with 24.1% opting for Sánchez, while only 18.3% support Feijóo. Although Sánchez has lost support, Feijóo’s fall is more pronounced, with a decrease of 3.4 points, while Abascal continues to grow, standing at 10.4%.
Final thoughts on the political future
The Spanish political scene is constantly evolving, with Vox consolidating itself as an emerging force in a time of turbulence. Competition between traditional parties and new political dynamics leaves an uncertain landscape, where popular support can change rapidly, reflecting citizens’ expectations and concerns.