The Radicalization of the Negotiating Process
The Venezuelan government has taken an unexpected direction in the negotiation process for free and transparent elections. After long negotiations with the opposition, the persecution of dissidents has intensified, endangering reconciliation and bridges with the outside world.
The expulsion of the staff of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has generated tensions and broken bridges with the outside world, while Caracas has sought a rapprochement with Washington for US oil needs.
Changes in the Political Scene
Chavismo’s political survival strategy has been characterized by opening up to dialogue when necessary and closing when it sees an opportunity. This has been reflected in the rapprochement with the United States, accelerated by the situation in Ukraine and Washington’s oil needs.
The reactivation of foreign trade and investments were the result of negotiations with the opposition, but the situation changed drastically with the reactivation of sanctions against the main opposition candidate, María Corina Machado.
International Influence and Consequences
The arrival of Alex Saab in Caracas was a turning point in the strategy of rapprochement with the US, but the situation was complicated by the arrest of the activist Rocío San Miguel, who broke the dialogue with the opposition
The Unitary Platform, led by María Corina Machado, has been affected by the electoral disqualification, generating tensions and calling into question the legitimacy of the electoral process.
The Uncertain Future
The participation of the majority of the country in the electoral process has excluded the Unitary Platform, introducing uncertainties about the conclusion of the process before December 2024.
While María Corina Machado is debating between disqualification and the possibility of competing, the opposition is at a difficult crossroads, with unpredictable consequences for Venezuela’s political future.
