Improvement of economic growth
The European Commission has improved the growth forecasts of the Spanish economy for 2024, placing it at 2.1%. This improvement is due to the increase in domestic consumption and the creation of jobs, which are the main drivers of the GDP.
Downgrade of forecasts for 2025
Forecasts for 2025 have been lowered to 1.9%. Despite this, the Commission supports the plans of the Spanish government and predicts that the State will close this year with a deficit of 3%, in line with the fiscal rules agreed with the European Union.
Factors that drive the Spanish economy
The increase in private consumption in Spain will continue thanks to the creation of jobs and a gradual reduction in savings. This will translate into more investment and contribute to GDP growth. Recovery and resilience projects and the positive development of the tourism sector will also contribute.
Limitations and comparison with other economies
The economic situation of Spain’s main trading partners will still limit the dynamism of the economy, especially in foreign trade activity. However, Spain has the best growth figures for 2024 among the Eurozone economies, surpassing Germany, France and Italy.
Deficit and public debt
The European Commission improves forecasts for the deficit and public debt in Spain. It is estimated that the State will close the year 2024 with a deficit of 3%, in line with the fiscal rules of the European Union. As for public debt, it is expected to stand at 105.5% of GDP in 2024 and at 104.8% in 2025.
Unemployment and inflation
Employment in Spain is expected to improve in 2024, but the country will continue to have the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone and the European Union. Regarding inflation, the State is expected to approach the 2% target established by the European Central Bank.
Situation in the eurozone
In the euro zone, the European Commission maintains its growth forecasts for 2024, although it has revised down the forecasts for 2025. Private consumption and the improvement of the labor market will contribute to the recovery of the euro zone, but the risks still remain high.
