A challenge for Barcelona
The city of Barcelona has been facing a problem related to tourism for some time. Videos circulating on social networks where expats and digital nomads think that it does not seem expensive to pay four euros for a coffee in the center of Barcelona, have generated outrage. Likewise, the continuous increase in rental prices and the difficulty in acquiring a home in the Catalan capital are already known facts.
In this context, although some insist that summer has not yet arrived – perhaps because a heat wave has not occurred that makes sweating inevitable when getting out of the shower – the increase in temperatures is changing habits. As heat waves become more intense and wildfires become more frequent, tourists are changing their trips. According to a new survey conducted by the European Travel Commission (ETC) and shared with The Guardian, three in four European travelers (76%) are adapting their behavior due to the climate crisis.
New destination preferences
The severe weather is now a major concern for both travelers and industry professionals. This year, the ETC began asking respondents how the climate emergency affects their travel plans. The result: a third (33.7%) of Europeans avoid destinations where extreme weather events are likely to occur, and 17.3% avoid places with extreme temperatures. A little more than 16% look for destinations with more stable weather conditions. In addition, almost one in ten (8.5%) change the months of their trips, while 10% of travelers are concerned about extreme weather conditions.
Despite these changes in behavior, the ETC report, which surveyed people in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, Poland and Austria, found that the months of August remain the most popular to travel between May and October. The main destinations continue to be the warmest, such as Italy, Spain, France and Greece.
The sun and the beach in doubt
People who previously enjoyed the heat and summer are now less attracted to these conditions or even worried about rising temperatures. This phenomenon is not new. Last year there was already speculation that amid the fires and heat waves, tourists could begin looking for other places during the summer months.
Projections for the future
A report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center published last year revealed that coastal regions, especially in southern Europe, will see a decline in tourism demand. The report highlights that tourist interest will increase in April and decrease in July. As seasonal demand changes across the continent, tourism will continue to grow according to projections.
The study, titled ‘Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand’, assessed changes in tourism demand under four climate futures: the Paris Agreement targets (1.5°C and 2°C) and two other levels of global warming (3 °C and 4 °C). Projections suggest an overall positive impact on European tourism demand, with a projected increase of 1.58% for the highest warming scenario (4°C). However, these aggregate results hide large variability between regions.
Differences within Europe
Seasonal patterns are expected to undergo significant changes with varying impacts between regions. Northern European coastal regions could see a more than 5% increase in demand during the summer and early autumn months. On the other hand, southern coastal regions expect to lose almost 10% of summer tourists compared to today, especially in warmer climate scenarios (3°C and 4°C).
