A key Ukrainian defensive line on the eastern front appears to have partially fallen to Russian forces this past week, according to a British defense intelligence statement and military bloggers citing sources on the ground.
Britain’s defense intelligence agency on Saturday published an unusually negative assessment of Kyiv near the town of Avdiivka, which fell to Russian forces in February.
The UK statement, which was shared on X, said: “Russian forces have maintained a gradual advance west of Avdiivka. At the end of March 2024, it is almost certain that they took control of two municipalities – Tonenke and Orlivka – and continue to dispute others in the area”.
The agency added that Russia had significantly more personnel and ammunition in the Ukrainian area and could replace forces with 30,000 troops a month.
Fall of strategic municipalities
While the townships are not strategically important in themselves and struggled to retain a few hundred residents before the war, they were part of the defensive line that Kyiv has fought bitterly to maintain after its forced withdrawal from Avdíivka.
Its apparent collapse in just over a month after a prolonged and brutal Russian attack is indicative not only of Russian momentum, but also of the fragility of Ukraine’s defensive lines.
The elections that Ukraine will not hold
In another world, Ukraine would have voted this past Sunday. In a year when billions have the chance to vote, people here would have given their verdict on Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidency.
Five years ago, the man whose talents as an actor, comedian and producer had made him a household name in Ukraine won the election and took office.
But with Russian forces still inside the country and millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes, fighting at the front or living abroad, there are no elections in sight.
It should be remembered that 16% of the Ukrainian territory is occupied and 15% is uninhabited.
Zelenski himself has said he was open to the idea of holding elections, but has made it clear in recent months that it’s not something he believes the country can take on right now.
Although Sunday was the day the constitution says Ukraine should vote, it also doesn’t allow it during wartime.
The alternative would be to suspend martial law during the election period.
Low support for the elections
Opinion polls suggest there is little desire among Ukrainians to vote: just 15 percent of respondents told the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv last month that the country should hold elections.
Last August, President Zelenskiy was asked for his position in an interview on Ukrainian television and was in favor of holding elections.
“There is a logic. If you are defending democracy, you have to think about that defense, even in times of war. Elections are one of those defenses,” he said, while acknowledging that a vote could prove a divisive distraction from the primary goal of defeating Russia.
Neither autumn nor winter has gone down very well in Ukraine. It has been more than two years since the large-scale invasion began and more than 10 years since Russia started the war with the country.
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, emerged strengthened from the elections that were held last month, where he obtained 88% of the votes, in an election that most Western countries have labeled as fraudulent.
