Introduction
This Sunday, Bulgarians face a new challenge: electing a new parliament. This will be the sixth time in three years that Bulgarians have gone to the polls in search of political stability. However, the failure of parties to form lasting governments and the prospect of once again facing fragmentation and cross-vetoes raise concerns about the stability of one of the poorest countries in the European Union.
Background
In the April 2023 elections, the populist GERB party and the pro-European party PP-BD won 69 and 64 seats respectively, giving them a majority of 133 of the 240 seats in parliament. In addition, they had the support of the 36 seats of the Turkish minority party, DPS. This pact seemed to resolve the political blockade that the country had experienced since 2021, with twelve failed attempts to form a government due to the lack of solid majorities and the division between parliamentary forces on issues such as corruption, support for Russia in Ukraine and the reform of the judicial system.
Stalled projects
Despite having a clear political agenda, which included entry into the Schengen zone of free movement, access to the Eurozone and the fight against corruption, these projects have stalled due to the lack of a stable government. Despite electoral promises, parties have failed to fulfill their commitments, leading to citizen frustration and lack of trust in the political system.
Current perspectives
The most recent polls show that the GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, leads the preferences with 25% of the votes. However, the pro-European PP-BD party has lost almost 10 points compared to the general elections in April. Other parties such as the DPS, the pro-Russian ultranationalists Resurrection and the Socialist Party also have a presence in parliament. The anti-establishment party There Is Such a People could be left out of parliament if it does not reach the threshold of 4% of the votes.
Possible alliances
The polls also suggest the possibility of a technical tie between the pro-European parties, the ultranationalists and the DPS, which could lead to an alliance between the GERB and the DPS to obtain a parliamentary majority. However, this could prove complicated for Borissov, as he would have to justify this pact to his constituents. Another alliance that seems difficult is the repetition of the tripartite, since the pro-Europeans have announced that they will not govern again with the GERB and the DPS. In any case, it seems unlikely that a stable government can be formed in the short term.
Conclusion
In short, the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria represent a new challenge for the country. The inability of parties to form lasting governments and the lack of progress on important projects have generated frustration and distrust in the political system. Although polls indicate possible alliances, the formation of a stable government seems unlikely in the short term. Bulgarians hope that these elections can provide a solution to the challenges facing the country and lay the foundation for a more prosperous future.
