The PSC as beneficiary
An electoral repeat in Catalonia would leave a Parliament even more fragmented, but with a clear beneficiary: the PSC. According to a survey prepared by NC Report for La Razón, the Catalan Socialists would remain the most voted force, but would go from the current 42 seats to 44/45. However, on their own they could not reach the 68 deputies who mark the absolute majority and would need to look for partners in the chamber. In this sense, the fragmentation and loss of strength of the left-wing formations would not make Salvador Illa’s job easy. If you wanted to mirror the coalition that inhabits Moncloa, the PSC would find even more weakened Commons, which would go from 6 to 5 seats.
Together for Catalonia and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya
Together for Catalonia would strengthen its position as the second most voted force. However, they could slightly worsen their result by going from the current 35 representatives to 34/35. The juntaires are the pro-independence force that would better withstand the onslaught that a repeat election would entail. On the other hand, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), would lose support despite remaining as the third most voted party. Of the current 20 seats, they would keep 17/18.
The CUP and the far-right formations
Finally, of the three parties that have made up the pro-independence majority so far, the CUP would remain with 4 deputies. In other words, they would not be able to reissue this majority that they have held in recent years, nor by opening the door to the extreme right. An electoral repeat would leave up to three far-right formations in the Catalan legislature. On the one hand, Vox could repeat its result, in the worst case scenario it would lose a seat, remaining in 10/11. On the other hand, Aliança Catalana could add one more representative, placing itself between 2 and 3 deputies. Finally, another far-right force would try to break into the Parliament of Catalonia: Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the candidacy of the agitator Alvise Pérez. The political project of this far-right agitator could get two representatives. Taking the best projections for these formations, the result of new elections would be a total of 16 far-right deputies.
The Popular Party
As for the Popular Party, which in the last elections significantly improved its result, a new date at the polls could be good for them. Although they do not have much to gain in new elections, they could add one more seat to their ranks, placing themselves between 15/16.
