A New Era for Catalonia
The Catalan political landscape has taken an unexpected turn with the victory of the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) in the recent elections, breaking with more than a decade of independence dominance. Salvador Illa, the socialist candidate, has achieved a historic result, both in votes and seats, opening a new stage for the region.
Governance in Limbo
Although the victory of the PSC is undeniable, the governability of Catalonia is still far from being guaranteed. Illa needs to form alliances to reach an absolute majority, which could prove to be an arduous task.
Alliance Options
Illa has several options to form a government. He could seek a left-wing alliance with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and the Comuns, or he could forge an alliance with Junts per Catalunya (Junts), although the latter option would require the support of other parties.
ERC: The Key to Governance
ERC, which has lost seats in these elections, could play a crucial role in forming a government. However, Republicans have been reluctant to support Illa, arguing that his proposals are incompatible with theirs.
The Decline of Independenceism
The elections have been a severe blow to the Catalan independence movement, with ERC and the CUP suffering significant losses. The sum of the pro-independence parties has fallen below 68 seats and 47% of the votes, figures that are far from those obtained in previous elections.
Together: Cautious Optimism
Despite the defeat, Junts has been optimistic and has announced that it will continue fighting for the presidency of the Generalitat. Carles Puigdemont, leader of Junts, has warned the PSOE that his party is key for the majority of the central government.
The Rise of the PP
The Popular Party (PP) has been one of the great beneficiaries of these elections, taking advantage of the disappearance of Ciudadanos. The PP has established itself as the fourth party in the Parliament, surpassing Vox and entering traditionally difficult areas for the party.
Comuns and CUP: Losses and Repositioning
Comuns and CUP, two left-wing parties, have exchanged positions in the Parliament. Comuns has lost seats, while the CUP has managed to maintain its representation. Both parties have expressed concern about the growth of right-wing forces.
The Triumph of the PSC: A Geographic Analysis
The success of the PSC has spread throughout Catalonia, with strong support in the metropolitan areas of Barcelona and Tarragona, as well as in inland areas. The socialists have obtained percentages of more than 30% support in six regions and have won in 12.
The Puigdemont Campaign: Sentimentalism and Mobilization
Carles Puigdemont has run an unusual campaign, holding daily rallies in France and mobilizing his supporters with the story of his eventual return to Catalonia after an amnesty. This strategy has mobilized his electorate and contributed to Junts’ results.
