The political context in Spain
The European elections in the Spanish constituency have shown that Catalonia is a central issue in national politics. Although the Socialist Party has celebrated Salvador Illa’s victory as an electoral claim against the Popular Party, this joy has been clouded by a feeling of unease that affects all parties, except VOX.
The party led by Santiago Abascal has received international support because the Spanish extreme right differs from other extreme right currents in Europe. In fact, Spain is the only country where Hitler won the war, which shows that the Spanish right has unique characteristics that distinguish it from the rest.
The conflict between Catalonia and Madrid is an issue that sooner or later will generate tensions again, regardless of whether Pedro Sánchez reinforces his power or if Salvador Illa becomes president of the Generalitat with the support of VOX and the PP.
The role of Europe and the United States
Both Europe and the United States have an interest in Spain not deviating from the established geopolitical script. Both political actors support VOX to control and weaken the PP, while they trust that the PSOE will fulfill its role in Catalonia. European history has shown that the failures of the European order usually begin in Spain, so it is crucial to prevent the peninsula from falling into the hands of old Africanism.
President Aznar made strategic errors by using the extreme right to scare Catalans and by trying to blame ETA for the 11-M attacks. Although Madrid is not clear that it is truly European, Barcelona has always demonstrated its Europeanism. Furthermore, Catalonia is in a unique situation, being at the same time very Spanish and very independentist.
The conflict with Madrid will inevitably break out again, regardless of whether Sánchez strengthens his power or if Illa becomes president of the Generalitat with the support of VOX and the PP.
The political future of Spain
The PSOE currently leads the Spanish political scene due to Catalonia’s need to buy time. However, after Sánchez there is no clear leader. The United States shows more interest in Morocco than in Spain, and Europe is under pressure. Despite this, Europe supports the left in Madrid to prevent the situation from destabilizing, despite the fact that Barcelona is the true European city.
It is likely that in the future we will see a Spain divided between VOX and a movement that seeks to make the West great again. Although it may seem that both paths are similar without Catalonia, in reality they are very different.
