The reality of the elections in Catalonia
It is often said that in this political context a new electoral call ‘does not benefit anyone’. While surveys by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) and internal tensions within Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) may faithfully reflect the current situation, a crucial part of this narrative must not be forgotten: circumstances are constantly evolving. . In other words, it is irrefutable that if ERC refuses to accept a humiliating agreement with the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), either decides to relegate Salvador Illa to the opposition, or even chooses to force elections again, the dynamics of the scenario electoral will change radically from that moment.
The impact of decisions on perceptions
Therefore, it is essential not to fall into the deception of thinking that an investiture pact with Salvador Illa will materialize due to a lack of alternatives or because one must cling to what can be achieved. In reality, it would just be a question of political will. The same will that, in any case, is essential not to support his candidacy. It is an undeniable truth.
The perception among the bases and concern
The rumors about the state of mind in the ranks of the independence movement are not mere speculation; It is clear that it is difficult for them to accept a new agreement that is humiliating, especially considering the possible return of Carles Puigdemont and the reality that any progress necessarily requires the support of Junts in the Congress of Deputies.
Challenges of parliamentary independence
All of this comes down to immediate calculations, while the independence movement in the parliamentary sphere is still struggling to define a clear programme that proposes effective unity. There is a widespread awareness that returning to coordinated action is essential for the independence movement to regain its credibility and appeal, but it is also a fact that this only represents one of the vital elements necessary for the transition to a new stage that demands greater clarity in its objectives.
The current context and the role of socialists
It is evident that more is known about what will not happen in the short term (the search for a unilateral approach) compared to what is about to happen (a diffuse negotiation strategy, waiting to resume talks in Geneva). This uncertainty contributes to an environment of discouragement that is conducive to the rise of socialism in the country’s governance.
A strengthened role of the PSC
It is not that the socialists have a very clear plan, in fact, their proposal for Catalonia is one of the most poorly defined and mediocre on the political scene. However, from their offices they have managed to establish themselves firmly due to the lack of relevant proposals from other political forces, combined with a questionable electoral legitimacy (in Barcelona, due to unnatural pacts; in Catalonia, due to their inability to offer something positive without the approval good from regions like Extremadura or Aragón).
The challenge of recognition for the independence movement
The independence movement needs to be recognized. It is not just about obtaining good results in the elections, which will eventually come, but about being perceived as effective and, above all, recognizable. In a complicated and paralyzed political map, it is difficult to project that image. It is in these scenarios that shaking the board, or even popping it, can be effective.
The need for a strategic approach
Absolute adherence to the wishes of the PSOE has never allowed anything substantial to be achieved for Catalonia, beyond legal reforms related to pardons or amnesties for those involved in the process. The objective of the future talks in Geneva is to address the resolution of the conflict, which implies exploring both a possible national claim for Catalonia within the state and the conditions for a possible recognition of its right to self-determination.
Looking to the future
Do not be surprised if public opinion indicators fall, if competition negotiations are prioritized over relevant aspects. As mentioned, the will can transform any projection. It is only a matter of the pro-independence parties, starting with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, which will play a key role in the governance of Catalonia, deciding whether it is a valuable and productive option to support Illa as president or whether, on the contrary, to leave him with the Empty hands could not only shake up the political landscape, but also re-energize the pride and interest of his potential voters.
The reality is that things don’t always happen just because we want them to. But sometimes, true desire is the first step so that those things can happen.
