The Valencian tragedy and its repercussions
After the recent catastrophe that has affected Valencia, the promises of reconstruction seem insufficient for the families and companies affected. With multiple open fronts, the political situation is complicated and raises questions about the electoral future.
Survey trends: a change of course
The latest survey data indicate a significant shift in electoral support. A poll carried out by Amalgama Métrica has revealed that the Popular Party (PP) could get 155 seats, with Vox adding 36, a combination that gives them a clear absolute majority. This trend points to a notable drop in support for the Sánchez government, which is expected to get less than 30% of the vote.
The impact of Sumar
The prospects are not more optimistic for Sumar, who is positioned below 10% in the polls, with a forecast of only 9 deputies. This decline represents a considerable challenge to their political influence, although it may not fully reflect their reality.
The results in other surveys: a worrying picture
Other studies, such as that of GAD3, also confirm this trend, with the PP and Vox adding a total of 187 seats, well above the threshold necessary to form a government. Thus, both the PSOE and Sumar are far from being able to maintain their current coalition, with a result that indicates a clear loss of power.
The situation in the Valencian Community: a nuanced victory
In the regional context, a recent survey by Demoscopia Servicios shows that the PP would maintain its dominant position with 37 seats, followed by the PSOE with 28. The other forces, such as Compromís and Vox, would also have a significant presence, but the sum of PSOE and Compromís does not reach the necessary majority to govern.
Polarization as a political strategy
With this scenario, the PSOE is considering significant changes in the Spanish Constitution to include the right to abortion and homosexual marriage, with the aim of reactivating the cultural debate and polarizing public opinion. This strategy ultimately seeks to influence future electoral outcomes.
Reflections on the political future
The consequences of the Valencian tragedy and the political response to this situation are still in the process of maturation. The definitive impact on the upcoming elections is uncertain, but current trends indicate a scenario that favors right-wing formations, as well as a polarization that may have long-term effects on Spanish politics.
