The PSC, favorite in the polls
The Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) emerges as the potential winner in the next Catalan elections, according to a recent survey by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). The PSC could obtain between 40 and 47 seats, which would represent a significant growth compared to the 33 it currently has in the Catalan Parliament.
ERC and Junts compete for second place
The battle for second place is tight between Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and Junts per Catalunya (Junts). ERC begins the campaign with a slight advantage, with an estimate of between 31 and 37 seats, while Junts follows closely with a projection of between 28 and 34 seats.
The PPC bursts in with force
The Popular Party of Catalonia (PPC) is experiencing a notable rise in the polls, going from the current 3 seats to a projection of between 8 and 12. This growth could place it as the fourth political force in Parliament.
Other parties in contention
Vox loses ground, with an estimate of between 5 and 9 seats, which could mean the loss of up to 6 seats compared to the current ones. The CUP also suffers a decline, with a projection of between 4 and 8 seats, compared to the 9 it currently has. The commons (En Comú Podem) are in a range of 3 to 6 seats, below the 8 they currently have.
Ciudadanos (Cs) remains out of Parliament, with a voting intention of 0.7%. Aliança Catalana, a new far-right party, could emerge with an estimate of between 0 and 2 seats.
The pro-independence majority in danger
The pro-independence majority, which currently has 74 seats in Parliament, could be threatened in the next elections. The CEO estimates that this majority could range between 63 and 81 seats, which means that it could need the support of Aliança Catalana to overcome the threshold of 68 seats necessary for an absolute majority.
Transfer of votes
The PSC, Vox and Junts are the parties that have the highest vote retention rates. The PPC and the PSC benefit from the sharp decline of Cs, while the PSC also gains voters from the commons. ERC wins CUP voters and transfers them equally to Junts. Aliança Catalana would draw mainly from Junts voters, while Vox would lose voters to the PPC.
Post-electoral pact preferences
Among socialist voters, ERC is the preferred option for post-electoral pacts, followed by common ones. The PSC is the preferred option for common voters. Junts and the CUP prefer an agreement with ERC, while ERC voters are divided between Junts and the PSC. Vox voters would choose the PP, and PP voters mostly do not want to choose any party to agree on. Aliança Catalana voters would prefer to agree with Junts.
Undecided
Among those surveyed who still do not know which party they will vote for, 21% hesitate between the PSC and ERC, and 20% between ERC and Junts. The survey was carried out between April 11 and 22 among 1,500 Catalans with the right to vote, so it does not reflect the impact that the surprise announcement by the president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, of taking five days to reflect on his continuity in office.
