An unexpected collapse in the Syrian panorama
In a surprising turn of events, the government of Bashar al-Assad has fallen in a matter of days, ending a regime that withstood intense pressure for years. December 2024 marked a turning point that has left analysts and citizens perplexed.
The end of an era: the assault on Damascus
Not long ago, predictions about the Syrian Arab Army’s resistance seemed optimistic, but the reality has proven to be quite different. On the morning of December 8, Damascus fell not to the Islamists, but to the unstoppable advance of a coalition of rebel groups that had captured the capital from the south.
Declaration of a new order
A spokesman for an organization called the ‘Operations Room to Conquer Damascus’ announced the fall of the regime on television, urging the population to preserve public institutions in a new ‘free state of Syria’. However, the viability of this new democratic system is doubtful.
Historical parallels and unique situations
The dynamics of the collapse of the Assad regime are reminiscent of historical events such as the fall of socialist regimes in Eastern Europe at the end of 1989. However, the speed with which events have occurred in Syria is alarming and reflects the structural weakness of the government.
A fragmented country
Unlike other European countries, Syria has experienced significant territorial fragmentation, with multiple groups competing to influence the country’s future. Kurds in the north, Sunni Islamists in the northwest, and other non-state groups have been present for years, leaving a vacuum that the Assad regime has been unable to fully control.
Implications for foreign powers
Assad’s fall represents a serious setback for Russia and Iran, which have invested significant resources in his survival. Russian military bases have been put on alert, with possible consequences for their influence in the region.
An environment of growing tension
Israel, on the other hand, continues to conduct military operations in Syria, fearful that the military arsenal left behind could fall into the wrong hands. Concerns about national security have intensified, especially over the possibility of dangerous weapons ending up in the hands of Islamists.
Syria’s uncertain future
Reactions from Western powers have been mixed, with recognition of Assad’s fall but palpable anxiety about what comes next. The already complex situation in Syria could trigger a new phase of conflict that will bring more destruction and a new wave of refugees.
The Syrian landscape has become more unpredictable than ever, with multiple actors fighting for supremacy in a devastated territory, leaving the population in a situation of extreme vulnerability. The consequences of Assad’s fall will reverberate beyond Syria’s borders, affecting politics and security across the region.
