Independenceism: A Generational Abyss
The CEO’s latest Political Opinion Barometer (BOP) reveals a deep generational gap in Catalonia’s electoral preferences. The independence movement, a hot topic in Catalan politics, obtains contrasting results depending on the age of the voters.
Those over 64 years of age are the most favorable to the independence movement, with 36.6% of voting intention, while young people between 18 and 24 years of age register the lowest support, with only 21.5%.
Vox, the Surprise among Young People
In an unexpected turn, Vox, the far-right party, has doubled the CUP’s voting intention among young people between 18 and 24 years old. 7.6% of younger voters support Vox, compared to 3.5% for the CUP.
This result challenges previous trends, as the CUP had traditionally been strong among young people. The poll suggests that Vox is gaining ground among young voters, who may be more susceptible to its populist messages.
PSC, Junts and ERC: The Battle for Young People
The PSC stands as the preferred party among young people, with 17.4% voting intention. Junts and ERC follow closely, with 9.3% and 8.7% respectively.
This competition between traditional pro-independence parties reflects the fragmentation of the Catalan political landscape, where young voters seek alternatives to the established parties.
The Comuns and the CUP: Difficulties among Young People
The Comuns and the CUP, left-wing parties that have traditionally supported the independence movement, face challenges in attracting younger voters.
The Comuns only receive 7% of voting intentions among young people aged 18 to 24, while the CUP obtains a meager 3.5%. This suggests that left-wing parties may be losing ground among younger voters.
The PP, Vox and Cs: The Anticapitalist Bloc
Parties that oppose independence, such as the PP, Vox and Cs, obtain significant support among young people. Together, these parties account for 15.1% of voting intention among voters aged 18 to 24.
This result indicates that anti-establishment sentiment and rejection of the independence movement are gaining ground among young voters.
Gender Trends: Differences between Men and Women
Electoral trends among young people are not uniform depending on gender. Young men show significantly greater support for the PP than young women (10.2% versus 2.4%).
On the contrary, left-wing parties, such as the Comuns, ERC and the PSC, receive more support from young women than from young men.
Changes since the 2021 Elections
Compared to the 2021 elections, there have been significant changes in the electoral preferences of young people. The CUP, previously the party of choice among younger voters, has now lost support.
The PSC has gained ground among young people, establishing itself as the most popular party in this demographic group.
A Record Number of New Voters
The May 12 elections will mark a milestone in terms of electoral participation. A record number of 243,004 new voters will join the census, the highest number since 2003.
This influx of new voters could have a significant impact on the election outcome, as young people represent an increasingly important voting bloc.
Conclusion: An Evolving Electoral Landscape
The elections on May 12 in Catalonia promise to be a decisive event, with an electoral panorama in constant evolution. The generational gap in electoral preferences, the rise of Vox among young people and the record number of new voters are factors that configure a complex political scenario.
As the elections approach, political parties will intensify their efforts to attract voters, especially young people, who will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Catalonia.
