The electoral panorama in Galicia
In the final stretch of the campaign for the Galician elections on February 18, the latest survey by the Center for Sociological Studies (CIS) offers an electoral panorama in which the Popular Party (PP) is on the verge of losing its absolute majority and The left has the possibility of forming a government led by the leader of the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), Ana Pontón.
According to the study, it is estimated that the PP will be the most voted force, with 42.2% of the votes, which would translate into between 34 and 38 seats. However, this represents a sharp decrease compared to the 42 seats they obtained in the 2020 elections. The absolute majority in the Galician Parliament is at 38 seats, so these results could lead to a historic change in the Xunta , with a nationalist force and a woman at the helm.
The BNG as a second political force
The CIS predicts that the BNG will be the second force in the Galician Parliament, with 33.4% of the votes and between 24 and 31 seats. These would be the best electoral results in the party’s history, surpassing the 19 seats they currently have. For its part, the Socialist Party of Galicia (PSdeG), which currently has 14 deputies, would obtain between nine and 14 seats, with 18.1% of the votes.
Other political forces at play
The CIS also contemplates the possibility of the entry of three other political forces into the Galician Parliament. For Sumar, there is the possibility of obtaining between zero and two seats, with 2.8% of the votes. In the case of Democracia Ourensana, the party led by the controversial Gonzalo Pérez Jácome, it is estimated that it would obtain between zero and one deputy.
For the first time, the CIS also considers the possibility of VOX entering the Galician Parliament. It is estimated that Abascal’s far-right could obtain between zero and one deputy, with 2.4% of the votes.
On the other hand, Podemos would remain out of the Galician Parliament, with a forecast of obtaining 0.2% of the votes. These results are based on a survey conducted between February 5 and 7, during the first days of the electoral campaign.
The panorama of political alliances
The CIS results show that the left-wing options could add up to 54.3% of the votes in the Galician Chamber (including the BNG, PSdeG and Sumar), while the PP and VOX would gather 44.6%.
Candidate evaluation
The survey also reveals that Ana Pontón, leader of the BNG, is the highest rated candidate, with a score of 5.89. Behind her is Alfonso Rueda, PP candidate, with a knowledge index of 95% and a rating of 5.29. Xosé Ramón Gómez Besteiro, PSdeG candidate, obtains a grade of 4.85, while Marta Lois, from Sumar Galicia, has a 4.06.
The undecided electorate and the issues of interest
Six days before the elections, 23.7% of voters declare themselves undecided. Regarding the issues of interest for Galicia, 34.2% consider that the BNG is the party that has focused the most on them, followed by the PP with 29.3%.
Voter loyalty
In terms of voter loyalty, 82% of those who supported the BNG in the previous elections say they will maintain their support. However, among the BNG voters, there are also 6% who voted for the PP four years ago and 2.9% who opted for the PSdeG at that time. On the other hand, 80% of PP voters remain faithful to this option, while 6% claim to have voted for the BNG in the previous elections and 2.7% for the PSdeG.
As for the voters of Galicia en Común, the alliance of Podemos, Esquerda Unida and Anova, their vote is distributed mainly between the BNG (58%), Sumar (23%), the PSdeG (7%) and Podemos (4, 4%).
Conclusion
The last CIS before the elections in Galicia shows an electoral panorama in which the PP is at risk of losing its absolute majority and the left has the possibility of forming a government led by the BNG. These results could lead to a historic change in the Xunta, with a nationalist force and a woman at the helm. However, the undecided electorate and political alliances will be decisive in the final result of the elections.
