Le Pen’s party could win and install Jordan Bardella as the new prime minister
Today, Sunday 7 July, France celebrates the second round of its legislative elections. This election day is crucial for defining the political configuration of the National Assembly, where 577 seats are contested through a single-member system with two rounds. Below are the keys to understanding this election and its impact on the French political landscape.
The current political situation
The first round left Emmanuel Macron in a delicate situation, relegated to third place with his centrist coalition, ENS Ensemble, which obtained 20.04% of the vote. Marine Le Pen’s National Reunion (RN), with Jordan Bardella as its candidate, emerged as the big winner with 29.25%, reaching 33.15% if its alliance with UXD is taken into account.
The New Popular Front (NFP), which brings together left-wing forces, came a close second with 27.99%. The preliminary results in terms of seats also reflect this distribution of forces: the National Regroupment (RN) obtained 37 seats, the New Popular Front (NFP) obtained 32, and Macron’s coalition (ENS Ensemble) obtained only 2 seats
The French electoral system
The French electoral system allows candidates who obtained at least 12.5% of the votes in the first round to compete in the second round. This mechanism seeks to ensure a more direct representation and avoid the dispersion of the vote. In an effort to avoid vote dispersion and combat Le Pen’s potential majority, more than 200 leftist and Macronist candidates have withdrawn from the race. This movement aligns with the proposal of the ‘Popular Front’ launched by the left, which seeks to form a unified block against the extreme right.
Prospects and uncertainties
Polls indicate an uncertain outlook. It is predicted that the extreme right could obtain between 175 and 240 seats, while the coalition of the left could reach between 145 and 200. Macronism, for its part, would be in a range of 95 to 140 seats. There is a possibility that a majority will be achieved through cooperation between conservatives and the extreme left, although Macron has declared that he will not govern with France Insubmissa, one of the forces that make up the NFP.
The French political system
The French political system allows the possibility of cohabitation, that is to say, that the president and the government belong to different political signs. In such a case, the prime minister and the National Assembly would hold power in domestic policy, while the president would maintain control in matters of foreign policy and defense.
