Current Panorama: a change in the political wind
Recently, election polls have revealed a significant turn in the political preferences of the Spaniards, with a favorable tendency for right -wing formations. Two prominent polls, one from Ipsos for La Vanguardia and another from Dym for 20 minutes, indicate that if the general election was held today, the Popular Party (PP) and Vox could get an absolute majority.
METHODOLOGY OF THE SURVEYS: How the information was collected
Ipsos for La Vanguardia: data and approach
The IPSOS survey, conducted between May 15 and 21 with a sample of 2,000 people, combined online interviews and telephone. This methodology, with careful representativeness, ensured that the data were extrapolated to the Spanish population, with an estimated margin of ± 2.2 percentage points.
Dym for 20 minutes: different approach
Dym conducted 1,057 online interviews between May 14 and 19, with a margin of error about ± 3.1%. Although the two surveys agree in the target audience, variations in methodologies may influence the final results.
Vot intentions: The PP leads to force
Both surveys indicate an advantage for the PP on the PSOE, with differences in the magnitude. IPSOS estimates 34.4% for the PP and 30.4% for the PSOE, while DYM assigns 35.9% to the PP and 28.7% to the PSOE. This tendency reflects the consolidation of the PP as the first political force.
The impact of the division on the left
One of the most worrying aspects to the left is the fall of sum and Podem, which could translate into a significant loss of election support. IPSOS assigns 5.8% to add and only 2.7% to Podem, while Dym shows a slightly more optimistic panorama for Podem with 5.1% and 6.2% to add.
Distribution of seats: an uncertain future for the left
The projections of seats based on voting percentages indicate that the PP could get between 145 and 157 seats, while Vox could obtain between 30 and 43. In contrast, the progressive block, with the PSOE and its allies, would be far from the majority needed to maintain the government.
Final Reflection: A change of course in the Spanish political scenario
The current data show a panorama in which the Spanish right is not only recovering support, but it may be positioned to govern without relying on minority forces. As the general election of 2027 approaches, the division within the left could be a determining factor in its ability to mobilize voters and recover lost ground.
