The PSC, favorite in the polls
As the Catalan elections of May 12 approach, polls point to an uncertain result with the PSC as the main favorite. According to two recent surveys published by Ara and El Nacional, the socialist party could obtain between 37 and 41 seats, which would place it as the most voted force.
The PSC, ahead of Junts and ERC
Polls agree that the PSC has a significant advantage over its main pro-independence rivals. Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, would be in second place with an estimate of between 30 and 34 seats, while ERC, led by Pere Aragonès, would obtain between 22 and 28 seats.
The independence movement, in low hours
The results of the polls represent a severe setback for the independence bloc, which sees its chances of reaching an absolute majority in Parliament reduced. The sum of Junts and ERC would remain between 52 and 62 seats, far from the 68 necessary to govern alone.
The CUP and the Commons, on a tightrope
Other political formations are also in an uncertain situation. The CUP, which has been a key ally of the independence movement in recent years, could obtain between 4 and 8 seats, while the Commons, led by Jéssica Albiach, would be between 6 and 9 seats.
The non-independence bloc, on the rise
In the non-independence bloc, the PP and Vox appear to be the most powerful forces. Both parties could obtain between 10 and 12 seats, which would allow them to consolidate their presence in the Parliament.
Aliança Catalana, the surprise of the polls
One of the surprises in the polls is the emergence of Aliança Catalana, a far-right group that emerged in Ripoll. According to Ara, it could obtain between 2 and 7 seats, while El Nacional gives it between 0 and 2 deputies.
Citizens, on the brink of extinction
On the contrary, Ciutadans, which was the most voted force in the previous elections, is on the verge of disappearance. The polls do not give it any seats, which would be a hard blow for the orange party.
A complex political landscape
The results of the surveys paint a complex political panorama in Catalonia. The lack of clear majorities and the fragmentation of the vote make it difficult to predict what alliances and pacts will be formed after the elections. The governability of the Generalitat is presented as a major challenge for political parties.
